The eighth oil price increase window opened during the year

Today marks the opening of another oil price adjustment window, bringing renewed attention to fuel costs across the country. Analysts from various monitoring organizations suggest that after three consecutive decreases in retail prices for refined oil products, the market is now poised for two back-to-back increases—this being the eighth rise of the year. According to estimates, the overall price increase could be around RMB 100 per ton, translating to approximately RMB 0.07 per liter for 90# gasoline and RMB 0.08 per liter for 0# diesel. Following the National Development and Reform Commission’s decision to raise the domestic retail price cap for refined oil products on November 28th, international oil prices have continued to climb. The WTI crude oil index saw five consecutive upward movements, with a total increase of $4.94 per barrel. As of December 10, the January 2014 WTI futures closed at $98.51 per barrel, while Brent crude for the same month ended at $109.38 per barrel. Although the official price adjustment has not yet been implemented, market participants are already reacting. Hu Huichun, speaking to the "Economic Information Daily," noted that current gasoline and diesel prices at major state-owned companies like PetroChina and Sinopec have reached relatively high levels. In the short term, the domestic diesel supply may remain tight, especially as many industries complete their annual operational tasks. This could lead to a surge in demand following the price adjustment, potentially triggering a new peak in fuel costs. Looking ahead, as more market resources become available, some high-priced regions might experience minor corrections. Analysts believe that the turning point in the oil price trend could come by the end of this month, signaling a potential shift in the current upward trajectory.