The photovoltaic industry has long struggled with a severe imbalance between supply and demand, a problem that became particularly acute in 2012. During this time, product prices plummeted sharply, while foreign polysilicon companies flooded the Chinese market with low-cost products, causing massive losses across the entire sector. As a result, over 90% of domestic polysilicon enterprises ceased operations. In the U.S., ten listed photovoltaic companies carried liabilities totaling 111 billion yuan, with an average debt ratio approaching 70%, according to Wang Bohua, secretary general of the China Photovoltaic Industry Alliance.
Meng Xianyi, vice chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, predicted that 2013 would mark a deep industrial adjustment period for the photovoltaic sector. This year’s policy developments, especially those announced on December 19, 2012, were seen as positive signals for the industry. The State Council emphasized encouraging mergers and reorganizations under market-driven mechanisms and eliminating outdated production capacity. It also imposed strict controls on new polysilicon, photovoltaic cell, and component projects aimed at simply increasing production.
These measures are expected to accelerate the industry's restructuring, leading to the elimination of inefficient and high-cost producers. According to Meng Xianji, deputy director of the China Renewable Energy Society, the overall production capacity may be reduced during this phase. Additionally, the "12th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Solar Power Generation" aims to raise solar power installation targets to over 21GW by 2015. The "Notification on the Application of Distributed Photovoltaic Generation Scale Application Demonstration Area" sets a planned distributed photovoltaic capacity of 15GW. Meanwhile, State Grid has introduced guidelines to simplify grid connection for small-scale photovoltaic systems, requiring only an application and offering full electricity purchase without additional costs.
Wang Bohua believes these policies have boosted the growth of the Chinese PV market, but he emphasizes the need for improved implementation and greater effectiveness. Despite these efforts, challenges remain. Overcapacity, export barriers, and widespread industry losses made 2012 one of the darkest years for the sector. Analysts like Li Ling from ChinaVenture believe 2013 could mark a turning point, with the industry moving toward full integration and survival of the fittest. Companies with outdated technologies, poor management, and low efficiency are expected to be eliminated or merged, leading to an improvement in the industry's overall performance.
However, short-term capacity imbalances are unlikely to be resolved quickly. Wei Qidong, former secretary general of the Jiangsu Photovoltaic Industry Association, pointed out that the adjustment process will continue throughout 2013. The pressure on PV module production remains high, with global demand expected to reach around 20GW, while domestic production capacity has not yet been effectively integrated.
Wang Bohua also highlighted two major challenges facing the industry: a lack of technological innovation and worsening international trade conditions. Key technologies and materials still rely heavily on imports, and the development of core technologies lags behind. Additionally, trade disputes, such as the "double anti-dumping" investigations by the U.S. and EU, have intensified the industry's difficulties. These trade barriers threaten the survival of many Chinese PV companies if they cannot compensate for lost European and American markets.
Moreover, the slow elimination of outdated production capacity and the reluctance of large companies to merge with smaller ones have further complicated the situation. The lack of a clear exit mechanism and local government support for struggling firms have hindered progress. As a result, the supply-demand imbalance remains a persistent issue.
The integration and reorganization of the industry is now the key theme. However, the downturn has dampened investor confidence, leading to reduced venture capital investment and uncertain IPO prospects for many companies. Li Ling noted that while large state-backed firms may see improvements in 2013, smaller private companies face significant pressure to restructure or be acquired.
Finally, the global PV market is shifting. With the European debt crisis reducing subsidies, the focus is moving toward emerging markets such as China, the U.S., and Japan. These regions are growing rapidly, and their combined market size is expected to reach around 10GW, solidifying their position in the global photovoltaic landscape.
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