The photovoltaic industry has long faced a significant imbalance between supply and demand, with sharp price declines and overcapacity creating major challenges. In 2012, the situation worsened as foreign polysilicon companies flooded the Chinese market with low-cost products, leading to widespread losses across the entire sector. At that time, nearly 90% of domestic polysilicon enterprises had shut down, and the debt burden on top U.S.-listed photovoltaic firms reached as high as 111 billion yuan, with an average debt ratio approaching 70%, according to Wang Bohua, Secretary General of the China Photovoltaic Industry Alliance.
Meng Xianyi, Vice Chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, noted that 2013 would mark a deep phase of industrial restructuring for the sector. Policies announced at the end of December 2012 were seen as positive steps forward. The State Council emphasized encouraging mergers and reorganizations under market-driven mechanisms, while also strictly controlling new projects in polysilicon, photovoltaic cells, and components that simply aimed to expand capacity. These measures were expected to accelerate industry consolidation, leading to the elimination of inefficient and high-cost producers.
In addition to these policies, the "12th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Solar Power Generation" raised the target for solar power installation to over 21 GW by 2015. The government also launched demonstration projects for distributed photovoltaic installations, aiming for 15 GW in total. Meanwhile, State Grid proposed simplified grid connection procedures, allowing small-scale systems under 10 kV to connect without cost and ensuring full purchase of generated electricity. While these initiatives were welcomed, Wang Bohua pointed out that their effectiveness still needed to be tested through real-world implementation.
Despite policy support, the industry continued to face significant challenges, including overcapacity, export barriers, and overall losses. 2012 was considered one of the darkest years for the sector. However, analysts like Li Ling from ChinaVenture believed that 2013 could mark a turning point. With increased integration and a survival-of-the-fittest process, inefficient and outdated companies would likely be eliminated or merged, leading to a more sustainable industry.
Wang Bohua also highlighted two key challenges: the lack of technological innovation and the deteriorating international trade environment. Many core technologies and materials remained reliant on imports, and trade disputes with the U.S. and EU threatened the industry's stability. Additionally, the slow elimination of outdated production capacity due to imperfect exit mechanisms and local government interference made it difficult to address supply-demand imbalances quickly.
As the industry underwent restructuring, investment from private equity firms declined, and the uncertain IPO prospects for many photovoltaic companies further complicated the situation. Despite this, large state-backed companies were expected to benefit from favorable policies, while smaller private firms faced pressure to merge or restructure.
Looking ahead, the global PV market was shifting, with emerging markets in China, the U.S., and Japan driving growth. As traditional markets in Europe reduced subsidies, the focus moved toward new regions, offering new opportunities for the industry. Overall, 2013 was seen as a pivotal year for the photovoltaic sector, setting the stage for long-term recovery and transformation.
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