Abstract [Xi Jinping pointed out in his explanation of the "13th Five-Year Plan" issued last October that the bottom line of economic growth from 2016 to 2020 is 6.5%. What is the economic performance of China in 2015? ...
[Xi Jinping pointed out in his explanation of the "13th Five-Year Plan" issued last October that the bottom line of economic growth from 2016 to 2020 is 6.5%. ] What is the economic performance of China in the ups and downs of 2015? This morning, I finally "released the list." The National Bureau of Statistics will publish important data including total GDP, three major industries, and nine categories.
The GDP growth rate is the most popular data at home and abroad, and various agencies have recently released forecast reports. Overall, institutions generally believe that China's economic growth in 2015 will be slightly lower than the government's target of 7%. The "First Financial Daily" reporter combed the main 15 brokerage research reports found that the predicted value is concentrated between 6.7% and 6.9%. Regardless of whether it is "breaking 7" or not, GDP growth will hit a new low since 1990.
Compared with the organization's worries about “breaking 7â€, a ministry official said in an interview with the newspaper yesterday that 7% should not be a standard line with special significance. In 2015, when the domestic and international environment was not good overall, China's economic growth rate remained within a reasonable range, and no large regional risks occurred. This is a remarkable achievement.
On the new normal of the current Chinese economy, General Secretary Xi Jinping said on the 18th that the main leading cadres at the provincial and ministerial levels have studied and implemented the spirit of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee. They should adapt to the new normal, grasp the new normal and lead the new Normality is the big logic that runs through the development process and the whole process. He asked the leading cadres to thoroughly study and understand the new development concepts of innovation, coordination, green, openness and sharing, promote the sustained and healthy development of China's economy and society during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, and ensure the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way as scheduled.
"No one has said that 7% is the bottom line of the Chinese economy. From the medium and long-term goals, as long as we achieve a growth rate of around 6.5%, we can achieve the goal of a comprehensive well-off society," said the ministry official.
The data reflects the "new normal"
For the upcoming 2015 economic data, Li Pumin, spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said on the 12th that China's economic operation was generally stable in 2015. It is expected that the annual growth rate will be around 7%, which is basically consistent with the expected growth target.
The aforementioned ministry officials said that the pessimistic expectations of some institutions in the world are somewhat excessive. The economic growth rate of around 7% is ahead of the major global economies, and the contribution rate to world economic growth is about 30%. China is still performing in major economies. One of the best.
In an explanation of the "13th Five-Year Plan" issued last October, Xi Jinping pointed out that the bottom line of economic growth from 2016 to 2020 is 6.5%. According to the aforementioned ministry officials, even from the international horizontal comparison, the range of 6% to 8% belongs to the medium and high-speed growth.
Regarding the new normal of China's economic growth, Xi Jinping stressed yesterday that as the economic aggregate continues to increase, we have encountered a series of new situations and new problems in our development. Economic development faces speed shifting nodes, structural adjustment nodes, and power conversion nodes. The new normal is an objective state. It is a state inevitable in the development of China's economy to this stage. It is an inherent necessity. We must seek for the situation, move with the momentum, and advance with the trend.
It is worth noting that the economic indicators of the new normal period also show a new normal. In addition to the economic downturn to the mid-high-speed growth period, indicators such as industrial structure, employment, and household income have all performed accordingly.
According to public data, the new urban employment in China is expected to exceed 13 million in 2015; the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth in the first three quarters of last year increased to 58.4%; the value added of high-tech industry in the first 11 months increased by 10.4% year-on-year. It is 4.3 percentage points higher than the industrial added value above designated size; the service industry accounts for 50% of GDP for the first time...
For the first three quarters, the proportion of tertiary industry to GDP reached 51.4%, 2.3 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year. Some experts analyzed this report that 2015 will become the first industry to account for more than half of GDP. Years.
“Without the problem, we can win time and space for China’s transformation.†The aforementioned ministry officials said that this is one of the reasons why the government attaches such importance to employment and household income.
Tighten the supply side reform
When the decision-making layer set the 2015 economic picture, it repeatedly mentioned that “opportunities and challenges coexistâ€. From the overall situation, 2016 will continue this judgment. It is worth noting that these opportunities and challenges may have never been encountered under the rapid changes in the domestic and international environment.
The above-mentioned ministry officials said that due to the increase in uncertainties in the international economy and geopolitics, China's economic regulation and control is also facing a new situation and problems. In addition, new financial issues, including the RMB exchange rate and capital market development, also pose new challenges for management.
Faced with new challenges, the supply-side reform proposed by the central government is considered to be the main line of policy in the next few years. Xi Jinping stressed yesterday that it is necessary to solve the problems in China's economic supply side through a series of policy measures, especially those that promote technological innovation, develop the real economy, and guarantee and improve people's lives. He proposed that starting from the production side, the focus is to promote the effective resolution of overcapacity, promote industrial optimization and restructuring, reduce enterprise costs, develop strategic emerging industries and modern service industries, increase the supply of public goods and services, and improve the supply structure to change demand. Adaptability and flexibility.
Looking at this year, it has become a clear policy to remove capacity, go to the property market, and reduce corporate costs. Liu Yuanchun, deputy dean of the School of Economics of Renmin University of China, believes that solid industrial production is stable and requires the foundation of market and price. The overall profitability of enterprises in the industrial sector is still declining. In the medium term, industrial production is still under pressure.
The reporter noted that while industrial data is falling, another positive phenomenon is that traditional industries are experiencing accelerated production capacity.
In the past, overcapacity governance has been difficult to implement because of local government's performance thinking or employment pressure. But now, under the market's push, the absolute total volume of coal, steel and other industries shows signs of reduction, and excess capacity is clearing. Although this will affect economic data in the short term, it will benefit China's economic transformation in the long run.
Liu Pei-lin, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, told this newspaper that the growth phase of the transition, in terms of GDP growth rate, occurred in a relatively short period of time. However, the industrial structure and technological level that are compatible with the new growth stage cannot be cultivated through short-term policy means in a relatively short period of time. In the period of rapid growth, we must comprehensively promote the improvement of industry and technology and promote productivity.
He also said that China can learn from the experience and lessons of Japan's development in the 1970s. Compared with Japan's rapid growth process, China's past high-growth infrastructure investment and real estate investment role is more significant, while manufacturing equipment investment and upgrade contribution is relatively low. Although this means that promoting the upgrading of manufacturing technology in the future is an important way for China's growth phase to change smoothly, it will take painstaking efforts to truly turn the potential into reality.
More "stable growth" can be expected
For the market, the most important concern is the specific policy of the future. In the short run, maintaining a certain economic growth rate is still the primary. At the same time, grasping the industrial upgrading and adjustment in the window period will become the most important area for policy deployment.
At the beginning of the new year, the National Development and Reform Commission has begun to exert "steady growth." According to statistics from the reporters, in the first half of January alone, the National Development and Reform Commission approved more than 200 billion yuan of infrastructure projects, and issued the Notice on Doing a Good Job in Social Capital Investment Railway Projects. There are 8 demonstration projects announced.
The industry generally believes that many policy deployments have begun last year and will continue to deepen this year. For example, the demand management policy that has been tightened has gradually loosened, and the pace of exploration of new demand management tools has accelerated. Reflected in monetary policy, it is to cut interest rates and lower the standard, and release liquidity. In fiscal policy, it is to expand the scale of deficits, reduce taxes and reduce expenses, and revitalize existing financial funds.
Zhu Baoliang, director of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center, believes that the overall thinking in 2016 should focus on economic restructuring, taking into account stable economic growth and prevention of financial risks. These include further accelerating the supply-side structural reforms of state-owned enterprises, finance, finance and taxation, enhancing the vitality of micro-subjects and the endogenous dynamics of economic growth, improving the quality and efficiency of economic growth, and laying a good microscopic role in playing a better role in macroeconomic regulation and control policies. economic basis.
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