The price of polysilicon in mainland China has continued to climb, which has triggered a corresponding rise in the Asian spot market for polysilicon. This upward trend has significantly increased the production costs for wafer manufacturers. According to EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce specializing in green energy research, the persistent rise in raw material prices is squeezing the profit margins of silicon wafer producers, putting immense pressure on industry operators as they carefully evaluate potential pricing strategies.
From EnergyTrend’s latest observations, the mainland polysilicon spot market has seen a sustained increase, with no signs of a reversal in the near term. This favorable external environment suggests that operators have room to adjust their pricing, and the upward movement in prices has yet to stabilize. Although China has introduced a double-reverse policy aimed at boosting domestic polysilicon usage, the quality, cost efficiency, and production capacity of local suppliers still lag behind major international manufacturers. As a result, the import dependency of the mainland market remains high, with the procurement ratio of imported materials not showing significant reduction.
Additionally, the implementation of the double-reverse policy has led to stricter entry procedures for foreign polysilicon suppliers, extending operational timelines. Combined with the uncertainty surrounding future market trends, suppliers have remained cautious, contributing to a stable and high spot market price.
In terms of current cost structures, there is still some room for adjustment in silicon wafer pricing. Following the recent agreement between the EU and China, the benchmark component price of €0.56/watt (approximately $0.74/watt) has become a key reference point for the industry. At this level, after deducting manufacturing costs for modules and cells, the silicon wafer price can still be maintained around $0.3/watt. Therefore, industry experts believe there is still potential for further price increases, while wafer manufacturers feel that the previous price hikes have not been fully reflected in their pricing models, leading to a general expectation of continued upward pressure.
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