Global oil prices seem to be getting rid of the downturn and usher in a new golden age. In the past week, it was firstly driven by the joint reduction of production by oil-producing countries. Later, it was affected by the geopolitical factors of Iran and Venezuela. Crude oil prices spurred and Brent crude oil broke through the $80 mark twice. This has put pressure on oil producers to re-increase production. If Saudi Arabia-led countries such as OPEC countries and Russia continue to limit production, coupled with the US withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear agreement and the US sanctions on Venezuela, the supply of crude oil is still in a state of austerity, which may mean that international crude oil will continue to push. Rise. However, the international crude oil market has undergone profound changes, and fossil energy continues to be a miracle in the era of high prices, and even oil-producing countries will not believe it. In Saudi Arabia, for example, the world's largest oil-producing country is undergoing industrial restructuring with changes in the country's power institutions. The country's young Crown Prince Salman is pursuing the "2030 Vision" reform, establishing three major visions of "the heart of the Arab and Islamic world, a global investment power, and a Asia-Europe non-hub" to reduce Saudi Arabia's dependence on crude oil. Russia, which is not OPEC, has experienced the impact of the low crude oil price on the national fiscal and monetary system during the crisis. Putin, who is re-elected as president, is also building a healthier industrial system in Russia. Other oil-producing countries are not facing a severe geo-economic crisis or suffering severe sanctions from the United States — such as Iran and Venezuela. Therefore, it is obviously unrealistic for traditional oil-producing countries to survive by oil or to survive well. The key is that the United States has joined the competition in the global energy market. This superpower, which used to keep its own resources and only buys and sells, began to export oil and gas resources to the global oil market. This has had a huge impact on the global market. Some people think that this is a conspiracy - the United States is to use shale oil new technology to attack the crude oil hegemony controlled by traditional oil-producing countries. Looking at it now, the "conspiracy" is actually a "yangmou". The United States joins the crude oil market with shale oil technology, which lowers the global oil price in line with market expectations. In addition, the Trump administration's withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement not only means opposition to Obama's clean energy policy, but also support for the traditional US energy industry. Based on the firm position of "US priority", during the Trump term, the United States will not give up the battle for the global energy market, and shale oil technology will have a lasting impact on the global crude oil market. From the recent two major actions of the Trump administration, we can see the impact of US factors on the global oil market. First, Sino-US trade friction has recently been reconciled. One of the trade consensus reached between China and the United States is that China has increased imports of US crude oil and natural gas to reduce the US deficit with China. Second, Trump last month complained about the oil-producing countries' production cuts "man-made" global oil prices. Trump’s complaints made Saudi Arabia’s OPEC and even Russia have to respond. It is reported that Saudi Arabia and Russia are planning to increase the production of crude oil of about 1 million barrels in OPEC and non-OPEC oil producing countries. On Friday, the Saudi energy minister said that Riyadh and Moscow are preparing to gradually withdraw from crude oil production to calm the market's concerns about crude oil supply. Any such measures will be gradual, so as not to have too much impact on the market. The United States has the world's strongest shale oil technology, is also a global crude oil exporter, and is a crude oil consumer. Trump’s buzz on OPEC and non-OPEC countries highlights that the United States is the world’s strongest oil hegemony. When Trump pushes out, the price of crude oil immediately responds sensitively. As Saudi Arabia and Russia indicated that they are ready to lift crude oil supply restrictions, WTI July crude oil futures closed down 2.83 US dollars, down 4.00%, to 67.88 US dollars / barrel, the main contract closed at the new low since May 1, last week fell about 4.9% For the first time in a single week, it fell for the first time in a month. Brent July crude oil futures closed down 2.35 US dollars, down 2.98%, to 76.44 US dollars / barrel, down 2.6% this week. In late June, OPEC and non-OPEC countries will hold special meetings in Vienna to discuss issues such as raising crude oil supply and relaxing national quotas. During this period, global oil prices will enter a period of 70 to 75 US dollars. The new economic cycle and the increase in oil production policies have led to a rise in global crude oil prices. However, after the crisis, the global market in the new economic cycle has undergone fundamental changes, and oil prices have entered the shock adjustment in line with market expectations. It is expected that even in special circumstances, global oil prices may be pushed up, but only temporarily. The geopolitical game in the Middle East, the oil market turmoil after the US exited the Iranian nuclear agreement, and the Trump administration's interference in crude oil prices will become an active factor in the fluctuation of crude oil prices. High and low global crude oil prices will force the outcome of the new energy revolution, which is the key factor in determining the direction of global oil prices. Although the Trump administration is not interested in clean energy, the United States remains the most innovative country in the world. Taking new energy vehicles as an example, Tesla is expected to become the new representative of American unicorn companies after Microsoft and Apple. Moreover, big data evolved into the 5G era. In the standard dispute, China Hua (Hong Kong stocks 00370) may still be lost to Qualcomm. This also means that in the future, artificial intelligence will superimpose the technological productivity brought by new energy, and the United States still has a first-mover advantage. The impact of the new energy era is unlikely to keep crude oil prices high. Therefore, if crude oil prices are now in a period of oscillation, then crude oil prices will fall in the future. Therefore, the high price of crude oil is more like "returning light back."
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