Supply pressure increases narrow fluctuations in steel prices

The index of China's manufacturing purchasing managers continued to rise in September, indicating a steady improvement in the macro economy and a steady increase in downstream demand. However, steel mills are also gradually increasing their output. The social steel stocks tend to pick up, and the contradiction between supply and demand has increased, and steel prices will continue to increase in the future. Pressure. It is expected that this week (2013.10.14-10.18) domestic steel market will fluctuate within a narrow range.

According to the weekly price forecast model of the Information Research Center, this week (2013.10.14-10.18), the domestic steel market price will fluctuate within a narrow range, the long product market price will fluctuate within a narrow range, and the plate market price will fluctuate. The national steel price index is expected to fluctuate around 139.6 points. The average price of steel is around 3630 yuan, with an average fluctuation of about 20 yuan. Among them, the long steel price index is expected to fluctuate around 155.9 points, with a slight fluctuation of about 0.1 points; the plate price index is expected to be Fluctuations around 120.1 points, a slight fluctuation of about 0.1 points.

According to the market research data of the Information Research Center, the domestic long products market price will fluctuate within a narrow range this week (2013.10.14-10.18), the plate market price will rise and fall; the raw material market price will fluctuate, and the iron ore market price will vary. It will rise by 5 yuan, the coke market price will remain stable, the scrap market price will rise by 20 yuan, and the billet market price will drop by 20 yuan.

1. Domestic Steel Market Slightly Fluctuated This Week In 2013, Week 41 (2013.10.8-10.11), the national comprehensive steel price index reached 139.5 points, which was 0.13% higher than before the holiday and 7.48% lower than the same period of last year. Among them, the LGMI long products price index was 155.8 points, which was 0.24% higher than before the holiday and a decrease of 9.12% compared with the same period of last year. The LGMI sheet price index was 120 points, 0.03% lower than before the holiday and 4.80% lower than the same period of last year.

According to the market research of the Information Research Center, in the 41st week of 2013, the price changes of 17 types of steel and iron and steel products in some regions were calculated as follows: The market price of major steel products fluctuates slightly compared with that before the holiday. The rising varieties have increased slightly, the flat varieties have increased significantly, and the falling varieties have decreased significantly. Among them, 5 varieties rose, compared with the pre-holiday increase of 3; 21 species were flat, 10 species more than before the holiday; 18 varieties fell, compared with 13 before the holiday. The price of domestic steel raw materials market was steadily weakening. The market prices of iron ore, coke, and scrap remained stable, and the billet market price fell by 30-40 yuan.

2. This week's steel ** market is difficult to climb 2013 41 weeks (2013.10.8-10.11) rebar ** market difficult to climb, this week's closing price rose 14 points before the holiday, after falling for 5 consecutive weeks, There has been a slight increase for two consecutive weeks. This week, the main 1401 positions held 15.08 million, Masukura 124,000 hands, and the main move gradually to 1405 contracts, there are also 57790 Masukura this week to 306,000 hands.

3. This week, the national steel industry stocks rebounded again. At present, the nation's steel society stocks rebounded again. In particular, the increase in the rate of building materials inventories accelerated slightly, and the inventory of slabs increased. According to the market research of the Information Research Center, on October 11th, steel society stocks in 29 key cities across the country amounted to 13.7498 million tons, which was an increase of 21.96 million tons from the pre-holiday level, which was an increase of 1.62% from the pre-holiday decline. From the point of view of the sub-variety, the country’s social inventory of wire rods was 1,289,700 tons, which was 4.32% higher than before the holiday, a slight increase of 0.41 percentage points from the pre-holiday increase rate, an increase of 8.39% from the previous month and an increase of 10.24% from the same period of last year; Rebar social inventory was 5.1522 million tons, 0.23% lower than before the holiday, slightly faster than the pre-holiday decline rate of 0.04 percentage points, down 0.42% from the previous month, an increase of 2.11% over the same period last year; 358,800 tons, an increase of 4.13% over the pre-holiday period, a significant increase of 2.42 percentage points from the pre-holiday increase rate, an increase of 5.91% over the previous month and an increase of 11.9% over the same period of last year; the social volume of hot-rolled coiled coils was 3,866.2 tons. Before the holiday, it rose by 2.26% from the pre-holiday drop to a rise, 1.13% higher than last month and 0.67% lower than the same period of last year. The social inventory of cold-rolled coils was 1.548 million tons, 1.63% higher than before the holiday. The previous increase was 1.60 percentage points higher, 1.65% higher than the previous month, and 1.30% lower than the same period of last year; the plate stock in society was 1,500 million tons, which was 3.65% higher than before the holiday, which was changed from the decline before the holiday to The rise was 2.60% higher than the previous month. It rose 2.35%.

4. Focus on market factors this week Macroeconomics:

[PMI] China's manufacturing PMI was 51.1% in September

The PMI for China's manufacturing industry in September 2013, issued by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics Service Survey, was 51.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. New orders, production, and purchases were the main factors. The sub-index continued to show a slight rebound, indicating that the current economic growth trend is stable. In September, the PMI index continued to rise, but the amplitude was significantly reduced, indicating that the economic growth momentum is not strong and the overall economic growth in the future will show a steady trend. The order index and purchase price index continued to increase, and the purchase volume index and raw material inventory index also increased, indicating that the production and operation of enterprises were still in a recovery state; the expected index of finished goods inventory index and production and operation activities decreased, indicating that the company still has a More cautious.

Industry News:

[PMI] September circulation PMI index 48.4%

According to the statistics released by the Information Research Center, the steel and mining industry PMI total index in September was 48.4, a decrease of 3 percentage points from the previous period, and it returned to the contraction range, indicating that the demand has weakened and the market activity of the steel and silver industry has declined. The sub-index shows that downstream orders have decreased, the company's bearish sentiment is stronger, and its willingness to purchase has weakened. The overall judgment on the market demand for steel steel in October declined.

Downstream demand:

[Traffic Investment] In August, traffic fixed asset investment was 186.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%

According to statistics from the Ministry of Transport, in August, the entire society (railways, highways, and waterways) completed a transportation investment of 186.5 billion yuan, an increase of 3.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed by 5.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, railways completed 51.5 billion yuan in investment in fixed assets, an increase of 12.6% year-on-year, and achieved rapid growth; highways completed investment in fixed assets of 123.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, continuing the month-on-month decline since June, and the growth rate slowed down; The investment for the completion of the construction was 4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%, and sustained rapid growth; the completion of the coastal construction investment was 5.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 34.2%. The main reason was the decrease in investment plans and the shrinking of projects under construction. In terms of sub-regions, the investment in highway construction in eastern, central and western regions respectively reached 44.8 billion yuan, 32.6 billion yuan, and 57.5 billion yuan, an increase of 0.4%, a decrease of 1.3%, and an increase of 7.2%. The growth rate was 7.5 points higher than the previous month, and the rate of decline was 26.9 points. At the rate of 14.5 percentage points, the growth rate of investment in the central region has dropped more due to the shrinking construction scale. In terms of sub-structure, highways, provincial highways, and rural roads respectively completed investments of 63.6 billion yuan, 31 billion yuan, and 25.2 billion yuan, an increase of 7.9%, a decrease of 11.4%, and an increase of 16.1%.

From January to August, the entire society completed a total investment of 114.9 billion yuan in fixed assets, an increase of 10.1%, and the growth rate fell by 1.3 percentage points from the previous seven months. Of which, railways have completed investment of 313.3 billion yuan, an increase of 15.4%; highways have completed an investment of 787.6 billion yuan, an increase of 8.3%; monthly investment growth has generally shown an inverted “V” trend; inland waterways and coastal construction have completed investment of 33.7 billion yuan and 54.4 billion respectively. Yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.9% and a decrease of 11.7%.

[Railway Investment] Fixed-asset investment in railways rose by 12.6 percent year-on-year to 51.5 billion yuan in August

According to statistics from the Ministry of Transport, in August, the railway completed a fixed asset investment of 51.5 billion yuan, an increase of 12.6% year-on-year, and achieved rapid growth. Throughout the first eight months of the year, railway investment has been growing at a rapid rate. From January to August, the total investment in the railways of the whole society was 313.3 billion yuan, an increase of 15.4%.

[Ship] National shipbuilding completed volume of 30.61 million dwt in the first three quarters decreased by 26.4% year-on-year

According to statistics from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China, in the first three quarters of this year, the total shipbuilding completed nationwide was 30.61 million dwt, down 26.4% year-on-year, including 10.22 million corrected gross tons for sea vessels; and 38.06 million dwt new orders for ships, up 147.1% year-on-year. Among them, sea vessels have a revised total of 13.84 million tons. As of the end of September, the number of handheld ship orders was 11,397 million dwt, which was a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%. Compared with the end of 2012, hand-held orders increased by 6.6%, of which sea vessels were 39.39 million corrected tons and export ships accounted for 87.3% of the total.