Overcapacity in the photovoltaic industry

Among the 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions, the photovoltaic industry has been listed as a priority for supporting the development of emerging industries; of the 600 cities, 300 have developed photovoltaic solar energy industry, more than 100 have built photovoltaic industry bases; global polysilicon production 200,000 tons, China accounted for Nearly 90,000 tons, but do not master the core technology; huge production capacity, the domestic market is low, relying heavily on the international market. This is the status quo of China's photovoltaic industry.

Due to the huge profits of polysilicon in recent years, many local governments and corporate investors have rushed to the top, and the capacity expansion has been too fast. For a time, the “photovoltaic base” has blossomed everywhere. Since the beginning of this year, demand in Europe has fallen sharply, and the price of photovoltaic modules has fallen by more than 50%. The photovoltaic industry has entered the cold winter.

According to Wang Bohua, secretary general of the Photovoltaic Alliance, the domestic polysilicon production in 2010 was 45,000 tons, which will double to 90,000 tons this year. In the same period, demand increased by only 25%. In the past few years, global demand for solar modules has been increasing at almost 100%. Experts predict that the PV industry integration period, which was expected to come in 2014, will come early, and 2012 will be the peak period of industry consolidation.

The photovoltaic industry has been launched in large numbers. In addition to the profit-seeking mentality of corporate investors, there are also some local governments' political achievements. As an emerging industry, a large number of investment in photovoltaic enterprises can not only increase GDP, but also obtain political capital for urban economic development. "Some cities simply do not have a foundation, no conditions, no industry support, they start from the beginning, completely disregard the actual situation." Meng Xianyu, vice chairman of the Renewable Energy Society said.

2011 will be a turning point in the photovoltaic industry. Since May of this year, the price of polysilicon has dropped sharply, from 700,000 yuan per ton to 210,000 to 250,000 yuan, a drop of nearly 70%. According to expert analysis, the ratio of capacity to demand in the photovoltaic industry has dropped from 41:16.7 in 2010 to 63:21. Enterprises rushed blindly to follow suit, leading to further imbalance between supply and demand, prices continued to fall, profits fell, which led to some business difficulties, some companies even began to suspend production, semi-stop production. There is a serious overcapacity, but a large number of investors are entering the market.

In fact, as early as 2009, polysilicon was positioned as one of the top ten industries with excess capacity. However, due to the huge profits at the time and the booming of the industry, a large number of investors entered the market madly, eventually leading to further excess capacity. After 2010, there are still more than 100 small and medium-sized enterprises in the country, and most of these companies currently suffer serious losses.

As market competition intensifies, smaller SMEs will be eliminated, and industry consolidation seems to be inevitable. China's photovoltaic industry is developing rapidly. At present, the production capacity is already in the absolute world and the industrial chain is relatively perfect. However, compared with developed countries, China's photovoltaic industry is still far from technical. The phenomenon of blind construction, low-level repetition and homogenization competition in the photovoltaic industry is still very serious. The low industry sentiment index has forced domestic PV manufacturers to face the situation of accelerating product structure adjustment, improving product quality and developing into high-end fields.

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