**Abstract**
Core Tip: Overall, we expect copper prices to stabilize in the short term, with a low likelihood of further declines next week. However, this does not alter our long-term outlook for weaker copper prices. The short-term support level for copper is around $6,600, with resistance at $6,800 (more likely to break through), and a second resistance at $7,000. The corresponding price range is between 4.75 million and 5 million yuan. Spot copper is currently trading between 4.8 million and 5 million yuan, while scrap copper ranges from 4.52 million to 4.72 million yuan.
**First, Electrolytic Copper Market**
After last week’s sharp drop, copper prices have remained relatively stable this week, showing a volatile but bottom-bound trend. The spot copper price has seen minimal changes, with overall fluctuations under 1,000 yuan. The spot market continues to show bearish sentiment, with bank funding shortages affecting the attitude of holding traders. At the end of the month, spot traders were eager to sell, keeping discounts wide. Unlike the futures market, spot traders tend to be more cautious and avoid buying. With low-cost copper available, only raw material factories that need to maintain production are purchasing on demand, while other businesses remain inactive. Middlemen also face limited profit margins and quiet operations this week. However, cash flow among spot holders has become more apparent, especially on the last business day of the second quarter when many banks closed their systems for quarterly settlements. Copper traders paused their activities, resulting in poor transaction volumes. If the current cycle continues, it's expected that spot transactions will remain weak.
**Second, Recycled Copper Market**
From Monday to Friday, scrap copper prices showed a slight decline followed by stability. Foshan 1# bright line dropped from 46,650 on Monday to 45,950 on Friday, a decrease of 700 yuan. The price of electrolytic copper also fell by about 1,150 yuan compared to last week. The first two days saw weak prices, but the last three days saw no further declines, with market transactions remaining quiet. Currently, the declaration of scrap copper remains difficult, and imports have not improved. The spot market is affected by the sharp drop in copper prices, leading to reluctance among merchants to sell and increased supply tension. Although domestic scrap copper supplies are limited, the combination of import restrictions and selling reluctance has led to tighter market conditions. However, the weak copper price has reduced the advantage of scrap copper, making its support insufficient. Most scrap copper processing companies are either idle or operating at half capacity, and market demand has shifted toward refined copper processing. This has caused some domestic copper processing enterprises to halt or reduce production, adopting a wait-and-see approach. Some scrap metal trading markets are nearly deserted, with few goods available for sale. The pressure on the domestic copper market remains high, with strong inventory levels and weak demand. The future trend of copper prices is unlikely to change significantly.
**Third, Downstream Market Analysis**
This week, Zhejiang Jinlong Hpb58-3 brass rod ex-factory price remained at 36,500 yuan per ton. Despite the drop in copper prices last week, the price of brass rods has stayed largely stable. This week’s copper price fluctuation has had little impact on the market, with merchants taking a cautious approach to price adjustments. The overall turnover in the downstream copper market was generally good. However, due to the sharp drop in copper prices and the low season, many merchants reported declining orders and output in the latter half of the week. According to research data from the Fubao Copper Research Group, the average operating rate of copper pipe enterprises in June was 75.8%, slightly higher than May’s 74.05%. A company stated, “In fact, May and June production levels are almost the same, but July will definitely see a reduction as the peak season has passed.†Overall, the main market remains weak, with low order volumes and limited procurement enthusiasm. Copper pipe enterprises have been engaged in price competition for a long time, with narrow profit margins. We believe that late copper consumption will not be strong, and any recovery may have to wait for the golden September and October seasons.
**Fourth, Futures Market Analysis and Forecast**
This week, copper prices fell to $6,600, recording a new three-year low before rebounding slightly. As shown in the chart below:
[Image: http://i.bosscdn.com/blog/ya/y2/01/306290903181557.jpg]
The global macro focus this week was on China. Early in the week, interbank financial tensions spread, causing sharp declines in commodity and stock markets. The Shanghai Composite Index fell to a historic low, but with the State Council signaling stability and emphasizing market fundamentals, interest rates stabilized. From the central bank's stance, it's clear that the government is determined to adjust the economy. Financial de-leveraging is urgent, and the central bank is changing its previous image. Urbanization is gradually gaining momentum, with over 300 billion yuan allocated to slum renovation projects, injecting new energy into economic growth. The country cannot tolerate economic growth below 7.5%, and its ability to control the economy remains strong. In Europe, the Eurozone economy is slowly improving, with Germany as a key driver. However, the debt crisis still poses challenges, particularly for Italy. In the U.S., after Bernanke’s statements, the dollar surged, and bond yields rose sharply, causing continued market panic. However, as the Fed eased market concerns regarding monetary policy, the exit from quantitative easing remains uncertain.
Fundamentally, this week focused on LME copper stocks and canceled warehouse receipts. As shown in the chart below:
[Image: http://i.bosscdn.com/blog/ou/i2/01/306290903336198.jpg]
Both copper stocks and canceled warehouse receipts have fluctuated and increased. Inventories reached a peak of 670,000 tons before slightly decreasing. However, we should note that the percentage of canceled warehouse receipts has risen to 55.63%, exceeding 370,000 tons. The increase in warehouse receipt cancellations eases the pressure of high copper inventories, helping to curb the bearish sentiment and supporting copper prices.
According to data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), the global refined copper market experienced a surplus of 104,000 tons in March 2013. Global copper production in March was 1.804 million tons, while consumption was 1.7 million tons. ICSG noted that the global refined copper market had a surplus of 222,000 tons in the first quarter, compared to a deficit of 312,000 tons in the same period of 2012. Data shows that global copper use in the first quarter of 2013 was 4.966 million tons, a 5.3% decrease from the first quarter of 2012. In China, copper consumption decreased by 10%, with net imports of refined copper falling by 46%. As the world's largest copper consumer, China accounts for about 40% of global demand.
Investment banks have released their latest forecasts. Morgan Stanley expects copper prices to reach $7,800 per ton in 2013, with an average of $7,900 per ton in 2014. Credit Suisse lowered its 2013 average forecast for copper to $7,240 per ton from $7,482, and its 2014 forecast fell to $6,225 from $6,675. Goldman Sachs announced a new estimate, expecting copper prices to be $7,000, $6,600, and $6,600 per ton for three, six, and 12 months respectively, compared to $7,500 and $8,000 previously.
From a technical perspective, copper prices are in a long-term downtrend, with expectations of lower prices in the second half of the year. Short-term, copper has strong support between $6,500 and $6,600, with the KDJ indicator bottoming out. There are signs that the possibility of a short-term downtrend is increasing, and next week’s copper price movement will depend heavily on China’s economic data.
In summary, we are more inclined to expect copper prices to stabilize in the short term, with a low probability of further declines next week. However, this does not change our long-term view of a weak copper market. Short-term support is at $6,600, with resistance at $6,800 (likely to be broken through), and a second resistance at $7,000. The corresponding copper price range is 4.75–5 million yuan. Spot copper is trading between 4.8–5 million yuan, while scrap copper is between 4.52–4.72 million yuan.
Tpomount sink
The installation of the countertop basin is easy, as long as the hole is opened on the countertop. There are a variety of sink edge designs for over-counter basin sink styles to choose from. It is necessary to ensure that the connection gap between the sink and the countertop is uniform, and there is no water seepage.
The basin with the decorative edge on the table or the whole basin on the table is called topmount sinks.
In short, the basin protruding from the table is the basin on the table.
Customized different sizes and PVD colors.
Drop-in Kitchen Sink,Top Mount Bar Sink,White Top Mount Sink,Top Mount Double Sink
Jiangmen MEIAO Kitchen And Bathroom Co., Ltd. , https://www.meiaosink.com